1965至1985年間，香港高等教育的發展相當緩慢，只有不足5%的適齡青年可升讀由大學教育資助委員會資助的大學學位課程，及至20世紀80年代中起，大學學位開始大量增加，進入大學的適齡人口百分比提升至18%。2000年，香港特別行政區行政長官更進一步提出要在十年內令香港高等教育的普及率達到60%。由2000–2001至2005–2006學年，高等教育參與率已增加至超過60%。本文探討在香港高等教育擴張後期，中學生對升讀高等教育期望的變化。本文研究數據來自2009年和2012年的學生能力國際評估計劃（以下簡稱PISA）。2009年香港的PISA調查在該年5至6月間進行，而2012年的調查則在該年4至5月間進行。本研究嘗試探索以下四個範疇：（1）學生的教育期望在兩次調查期間（2009至2012年）的變化；（2）學生的家庭社經背景與教育期望間的關係；（3）學生能力與教育期望間的關係；（4）家庭社經背景與學生能力等因素對學生期望升讀大學的相對影響程度。From 1965 to 1985, the development of higher education was very slow in Hong Kong. Less than 5% of age-eligible adolescents were admitted to UGC-funded university degree program. However, since the mid-1980s, there has been an expansion of university places and the university admission rate has increased to 18% of the age-eligible population. In 2000, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region proposed that the admission rate of higher education be increased to 60% within ten years. As a consequence, the participation rate of higher education was increased to over 60% from the school year 2000–2001 to 2005–2006. This article focuses on the change in expectation for pursuing higher education of Hong Kong secondary school students during the post-massification of Hong Kong higher education.The data of this article originates from two cycles of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) — PISA 2009 and PISA 2012. PISA 2009 in Hong Kong was conducted from May to June 2009, while PISA 2012 was conducted from April to May 2012. This article attempts to investigate the following four areas: (1) the changes in students’ educational expectation during 2009 to 2012; (2) the relationship between students’ family socioeconomic background and their educational expectation; (3) the relationship between students’ ability and their educational expectation; (4) the relative impact of family socioeconomic background and students’ ability on their educational expectation toward the pursuit of university education. Copyright © 2009
